The defining shift in the global bunker market in 2026 has not been the price of fuel. It has been access to it. Mithat Çiftçioğlu, Marine Fuels Distribution Director at Alkagesta Singapore, put it plainly earlier this year: “What is being debated in the market today is no longer just oil prices. For traders and shipowners, the real question has shifted: not what fuel will cost, but whether it will be available at all.” That reframing captures what the Hormuz crisis has revealed about the structure of the global marine fuels market — and about the operators best positioned to navigate it.
A Market Transformed by the Hormuz Disruption
Singapore entered 2026 from a position of record strength. Total bunker sales reached 56.2 million mt in 2025 — a 3.2% increase on the previous record — with HSFO growing 7.8% as the global scrubber-equipped fleet expanded and vessel calls held firm across all major shipping segments. February 2026 continued that momentum, with sales reaching 4.61 million mt, up 12% year-on-year, as bio-blended bunker sales rose to their highest level since September 2025 and LNG sales jumped 96.7% on the year.
The disruption that followed was severe. The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East on February 28 effectively removed one fifth of global crude oil supply from normal circulation, sending VLSFO prices past $1,000 per tonne — approximately double pre-war levels. As Çiftçioğlu noted at the time, the release of strategic petroleum reserves offered limited relief: “Strategic reserves consist of crude oil. To produce bunker fuel, the following chain must be completed: crude oil, refinery, product logistics, bunker port. This process takes time. Strategic reserves can temporarily stabilize oil prices, but they cannot solve the access problem in the bunker market in the short term.” By April, Singapore bunker sales had fallen 8.7% month-on-month to 4.4 million mt as oil tanker arrivals dropped sharply and the port absorbed the full weight of the supply shock. May brought a second consecutive year-on-year decline, with sales easing to 4.5 million mt, as steep backwardation of USD 30-80/t pushed shipowners to delay bunkering decisions and reduce stem sizes.
The year-on-year comparison throughout tells the more important story: despite one of the most severe supply disruptions in the port’s recent history, Singapore’s volumes held within single-digit percentage points of the prior year — a performance that reflects structural depth rather than circumstantial resilience.
Physical Control, Financial Depth and the Zhoushan Challenge
The competitive pressure from Chinese ports intensified during the disruption. Vessels shifted toward Zhoushan in April as the Singapore-Zhoushan VLSFO price spread widened to around USD 56/t on April 30 before narrowing to around USD 15/t by June as Singapore prices corrected. Chinese refiners benefited from access to competitively priced feedstocks and government support that helped sustain refinery output through the disruption period. Ningbo-Zhoushan overtook Singapore as the world’s second-busiest container port in Q1 2026 — a development that signals how seriously the competitive challenge from Chinese ports should be taken.
For operators active in Singapore, the response to that challenge comes down to infrastructure depth and supply chain control. Çiftçioğlu is direct about what that means in practice: “In Singapore, physical control is essential.” Alkagesta Asia, established in late 2024 as part of the group’s Asia-Pacific expansion, secured storage capacity at Horizon Terminal by mid-2025 — giving the desk direct control over quality, inventory, and delivery timing rather than relying on third-party arrangements. That physical foundation underpins a monthly trading volume of approximately 200,000 metric tonnes, comprising primarily VLSFO alongside LSMGO introduced in late 2025. At the group level, aggregate commodity trade finance facilities exceeding USD 1.2 billion and relationships with 28 international banks provide the liquidity platform that allows the desk to maintain supply continuity even when flat prices surge and credit conditions tighten.
Singapore’s broader competitive advantage over Chinese ports rests on what cannot easily be replicated: transparency, regulatory depth, and long-term infrastructure investment. The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore issued its first methanol bunkering licences in November 2025, valid from January 2026 to 2030, as part of a strategy to position the port as a multi-fuel hub capable of meeting the decarbonisation demands of the next decade.
Resilience Built Before the Crisis
The March 2026 disruption tested every dimension of Alkagesta’s Singapore supply chain — and held. As Çiftçioğlu put it: “During periods of market stress, resilience is built well before the crisis begins.” That resilience drew on long-term sourcing relationships, diversified supply routes extending from Europe to Asia, and a compliance framework that has consistently exceeded minimum market requirements. As a European company, Alkagesta applied rigorous KYC and sanctions screening standards well before the recent wave of regulatory changes came into effect. As Çiftçioğlu notes: “Strong compliance is not simply a regulatory obligation — it is essential for building long-term relationships with customers, banks and business partners.”
When conditions deteriorated, that preparation showed. Banking partners increased credit support as flat prices surged. Shipping partners maintained logistics continuity. Trading counterparties continued working closely with the desk throughout the most challenging period. The result was uninterrupted supply to customers at a moment when many market participants were declaring force majeure and cancelling contracted deliveries.
Outlook
The near-term demand picture remains cautious. Geopolitical uncertainty, the unresolved Hormuz situation, and the price dynamics that continue to push some stem volume toward Chinese ports are all weighing on Singapore’s volumes in the short term. But as Çiftçioğlu observed in his Deniz Ticaret analysis: “As long as Hormuz remains closed, it will not be oil prices but fuel access that constitutes the defining risk for global shipping.” That assessment holds — and it points toward what the medium-term market will reward: operators with the infrastructure depth, compliance standards, and supply chain relationships to guarantee access when the broader market cannot.
Singapore’s long-term position as the world’s leading bunkering hub remains intact. Environmental regulations, FuelEU Maritime requirements, and the shipping industry’s decarbonisation trajectory will continue driving demand for compliant and lower-carbon fuels — a transition Singapore is better placed than any other Asian hub to lead. For Alkagesta’s Singapore desk, the objective remains consistent regardless of how market conditions evolve: building long-term partnerships through consistency and reliability, one delivery at a time.