Alkagesta Commodity Market Insights | 3 April 2026 | Escalating Maritime Risks and Structural Supply Strains

Malta, 3 April, 2026.

I. Executive Summary & Market Highlights

The global energy complex entered a more dangerous phase this week, according to Commodity Market Insights from Alkagesta, as new maritime threats emerged alongside persistent supply disruptions.

• New Maritime Pressure Point: Houthi militants formally entered the conflict on March 28, launching ballistic missiles at targets in Israel and threatening the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a corridor for 12% of global trade.
• Hormuz Deadlock Persistent: Despite a 10-day extension of the strike pause by the US, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to most commercial traffic, with transits remaining far below pre-war levels.
• Refinery Outages: Global outages remain severe, with approximately 6 million b/d of Middle Eastern refining capacity assessed as disrupted or at risk as of March 30.
• Stockpile Divergence: Singapore’s heavy distillate stocks climbed to a 10-week high of 24.5 million barrels, while Fujairah stocks dropped to their lowest level since February 2018.
• Strategic Policy Shifts: Australia announced a new fuel security bill to underwrite imports, while Japan lowered mandatory private oil reserve requirements to 55 days to mitigate shortfalls.

II. Brent Crude: Technical & Fundamental Analysis

The crude market remained in a “recalibrating risk” phase as geopolitical premiums were actively managed rather than priced out.

• Structural Price Surge: Dated Brent prices surged over $123/b on March 30, representing a 74% increase since late February as the conflict evolved into a structural energy issue.
• Benchmark Convergence: While Brent strengthened, prompt Dubai prices eased, causing regional benchmarks to move closer together during the week.
• Volatility Drivers: The market’s upward trajectory was fueled by the failure of diplomatic efforts to reopen Hormuz and renewed threats from the Trump administration to seize Iranian export hubs like Kharg Island.

III. Singapore Hub: Supply and Demand Review

The Asian hub is navigating an uneven supply landscape, characterized by rising heavy distillate stocks but acute scarcity of specific fuel grades.

• Supply Dynamics: While overall heavy distillate stocks rose 2% week-over-week, fuel oil imports actually fell 13.5% as cargo inflows from the Americas and Russia decreased. The regional supply flows remain highly sensitive to disruptions in Hormuz-linked routes. HSFO remains relatively easier to source than LSFO due to continued inflows of Russian high-sulfur material.
• Trading Activity: According to Alkagesta Singapore, demand for prompt cargoes cooled toward the end of the week, with the 0.5% VLSFO cash differential shedding 23% from its record high to stand at a three-week low on March 25. Recorded trades show major participation from Shell, Unipec, and Mitsui, with VLSFO trades for April loading windows concluding at premiums between $52 and $54/mt.
• Bunker Sentiment: Bunker suppliers began holding back from over-committing for April delivery due to uncertainty regarding the ability to load future cargoes.

IV. Europe Market: Supply and Demand Review

European fuel markets are currently characterized by “prompt comfort” but long-term anxiety, based on feedback from Alkagesta Geneva.

• Inventory Resilience: In the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, fuel oil availability remained adequate with prompt loading dates available for both HSFO and MGO.
• Arbitrage Paralysis: Although the arbitrage window to Asia appears open on paper, “mental” freight rates and a steep backwardation in the paper market have effectively trapped product within the Atlantic Basin.
• Refinery Restarts: Early restarts at regional facilities, such as the ExxonMobil Antwerp refinery, have provided some relief to middle distillate balances. However, Orlen Unipetrol declared force majeure on March 26, citing serious threats to its petrochemical and refining units.

V. USA Market: Supply and Demand Review

The US has transitioned into a “fronthaul” supplier for Europe while managing its own domestic supply pressures.

• Export Surge: Refining margins in the US have more than doubled since early March, and exports to Northwest Europe rose to 429,200 b/d in March, a significant increase from 2025 average.
• Domestic Relief Measures: To alleviate supply disruptions, the US EPA waived E15 gasoline restrictions for the 2026 summer driving season. Additionally, the Jones Act waiver issued on March 18 has allowed foreign-flagged vessels to facilitate intra-US product movements.
• Bunker Strength: Spot bunker prices in Houston rose alongside Brent futures, with VLSFO assessed at $874/mt ex-wharf on March 30 amid port congestion and rising delays.

VI. Weekly Market Data Summary (March 24–30, 2026)

Data Commentary: The most striking development in the data is the violent widening of the East-West spreads. As shown in Table 1, the 380 Cst HSFO East-West spread surged 55%, while the 0.5% spread jumped 21%. This reflects an extreme pull of demand toward Asia that is currently physically restricted by the blockade. Simultaneously, the Europe HI5 spread fell 18%, suggesting that high-sulfur components are increasingly valued relative to low-sulfur grades in the Atlantic Basin as blending activity increases.

VII. Weekly Conclusion & Strategic Forecast

Conclusion: The energy complex is entering a second, more dangerous phase of the conflict. The de facto closure of Hormuz is no longer the sole risk; the expansion of hostilities to the Bab al-Mandab Strait threatens one of the few remaining routes for rerouted Middle Eastern crude to reach Asian markets. While Singapore and Europe are currently buffered by high inventory levels, these “false senses of security” will likely dissipate in April as the 31-day voyage gap from the start of the war finally manifests in physical arrivals.

CEO Commentary – Orkhan Rustamov, Alkagesta:
“What we are seeing now is not a temporary dislocation but a structural shock to global energy logistics. The simultaneous pressure on Hormuz and Bab al‑Mandab effectively compresses the world’s most critical maritime arteries. Markets have not yet priced in the full impact of delayed arrivals, but once the April–May window opens, the physical tightness will become impossible to ignore.”

Future Forecast:

• Short-Term (1–2 Weeks): Brent is expected to remain highly volatile near $120/bbl. Any verified closure of Bab al-Mandab could be an additional $20/bbl to global prices almost immediately.
• Medium-Term (Q2 2026): Supply tightness is expected to peak in May. Market participants should prepare for a “second round” of buying interest from Asia in May, which will likely force a further widening of inter-regional spreads.

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Disclaimer

This insight reflects Alkagesta’s views on historical developments and potential future trends in energy markets, demand, and supply dynamics. The analysis is based on Alkagesta’s internal assessments and publicly available information from a variety of external sources. Certain numerical data referenced in this insight is derived from or informed by information published by S&P Global Platts, including the Platts Long-Term Oil Demand Outlook.

This insight may contain forward-looking statements, including projections, expectations, estimates, and assumptions regarding future developments. Actual outcomes may differ materially from those expressed or implied due to a range of factors beyond Alkagesta’s control, including changes in economic conditions, technological developments, regulatory or policy changes, geopolitical events, shifts in energy demand and supply, or other market developments.

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About Alkagesta

Alkagesta is a global commodity trading house specializing in petroleum and steel products, fertilizers, and biofuels. Established in Malta in 2018, the company operates as a multinational enterprise with 17 offices and representations worldwide. Alkagesta maintains partnerships with 28 international banks and conducts trading activities across 48 countries, facilitating approximately 9 million metric tons of commodity flows annually. Its extensive logistics network includes access to more than 700,000 cubic meters of storage capacity across Europe and Asia, supporting efficient and resilient global supply chains.

The company offers fully integrated trading capabilities — from sourcing and storage to delivery — underpinned by robust risk management, compliance, and governance frameworks.

Alkagesta was founded in 2018 by its management team and remains privately held and governed by senior leadership. Senior leadership, including the founding team, holds a significant equity stake in the company, which continues to grow in alignment with performance and strategic contribution. Today, the Group employs over 165 professionals and is built on tested systems, experienced governance, and a culture of continuous development.

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